Common Sense

Today several of the U.S. intelligence agencies released a report that paints a grim outlook for the future of Iraq… politically.

The assessment, known as the National Intelligence Estimate, casts strong doubts on the viability of the Bush administration strategy in Iraq. It gives a dim prognosis on the likelihood that Iraqi politicians can heal deep sectarian rifts before next spring, when American military commanders have said that a crunch on available troops will require reducing the United States’ presence in Iraq.

Most people with half a brain realize that the Maliki government isn’t going to hold. Similarly to the corrupt South Vietnamese government that we propped up during that war, our presence their keeps Maliki as prime minister. During his speech yesterday, President Bush reiterated his support for Maliki. The only two people who seriously want us to stay are George W. Bush and Maliki.

The serious consequences that the NIE warns of should we withdraw our troops (like we’re gonna have to do anyway) is that the Maliki government will fall and with that power vacuum, there will be a lot of violence to fill it, probably with a radical Shiite cleric.

The intelligence report said that the influx of American troops in Iraq has achieved some successes in lowering sectarian violence there, but concluded that Iraqi leaders “remain unable to govern effectively” and that the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki “will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months” as rival factions led by Mr. Maliki’s fellow Shiites vie for power.

But, should we stay, the estimate says things are going to get much worse over the next 6-12 months.

So right now the decision is over whether we begin to draw down forces now and have things go south in a hurry… or whether things go south in a hurry while we’re there, then we draw down forces anyway because everyone in the military says the troop level of the “surge” is unsustainable past next April.

The assessment concluded that there was little reason to expect that Iraqi politicians would achieve significant gains before the spring, when American commanders said they would have to begin to cut troop levels in Iraq, now at more than 160,000, to ease the burden on military personnel.

Either way, some very bad things are going to happen and we are going to drawdown troop levels. The question is how many dead American soldiers do we want between now and then. I vote fewer and recommend we begin drawing down and redeploying soldiers elsewhere. Without American troops in Iraq, al-Qaida Iraq will cease to have a recruiting tool and Iraq will be left to sectarian violence, which was bound to happen anyway.

Standing in the way of the RPG doesn’t save you or the people behind you.

The smart money is with the Democratic plans to redeploy troops to fight the resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan and with Sen. John Warner’s talk of drawing down troops to at least show “we mean business.”