Common Sense

Something in the vents is getting blown in the air in the newsroom and it set off an allergic reaction. I was leaking mucous like a sieve and I couldn’t breathe. Thanks to my pitiful look, someone gave me a couple of Sudafed for a nasal decongestant, something else that acts as an antihistamine, and I popped a 50 mg Ultram to make myself feel better.

Now I can breathe.

We lost Internet Friday night in the newsroom, and I was too concentrated on my iPod and my work to really come up with decent picks in some faraway elections. Now I feel too stuffy and sick to do it. But, because I love you all, here goes.

In the House, I think at minimum the Democrats will pick up 17 seats, high end maybe 30. If we ran the table in all the districts where there was even a weak Democratic chance, it would be something like 45 seats, but that way overly optimistic. I see at least 17 good races where Dems are on offense and have a good lead or good momentum for Tuesday. That includes Tammy Duckworth in Illinois and Republican Don Sherwood’s re-election effort in Pennsylvania. You know him, the guy that is running campaign ads that admit he had a mistress, but that he didn’t beat and strangle her. That ought to be enough to take the majority in the House.

There are only a few tight Senate races, and Dems need 6 to retake the majority there. The way I see it, Menendez will hold his seat in New Jersey, Burns loses his in Montana, as well as pick ups in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yes, Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum surprisingly isn’t popular with anyone and will lose re-election by double digits.

The leaves three tight toss-ups, which Dems need to win in order to retake the majority. I feel good about Missouri thanks to last week’s national attention to Michael J. Fox’s ad for the Democrat. Frankly, it is un-American to make fun of Michael J. Fox and Rush Limbaugh should shipped to Siberia for doing it. (Ed. note: I’m well aware that Fox is from Canada, but he’s ours now damnit! By the way, why do they call it canadian bacon? It’s ham you bastards!)

I really want to call Virginia for Jim Webb. I really do. But if I do, I know I’m going to be kicking myself for possibly jinxing all the way until the polls close Tuesday. The truth is, I’m not sure Allen has kicked himself enough in the nuts to lose. It all depends on whether through the “sex novel” scandal that the Allen campaign tried to stir up reminds people that Webb fought in Vietnam and has way more military expertise than Allen, who may be a racist and condones his campaign staffers putting constituents in headlocks. It’s just too close.

The same in Tennessee. I want to say the people in Tennessee are in the 21st Century and don’t care about miscegenation or that Rep. Ford went to a, gasp, Playboy party. What, like the one I saw last night on E!? That just means Harold Ford, Jr. is actually a somebody, unlike Corker who gets carded at strip clubs, I’m sure. I want to say that RNC ad with the white woman backfired more than it helped, but I was so sure that the people of Oklahoma weren’t worried about rampant lesbianism in public schools’ bathrooms in 2004. Then again, that’s Oklahoma and when has Oklahoma not been a total disappointment to the rest of the country? That one is also just too close for me to say anything without fearing a jinx.

I will say that I feel good about those candidates. Whoever recruited Ford and Webb to run Senate campaigns in those states picked the right people. And even if Allen wins, his name is mud now. Whatever presidential potential he had in 2008 is totally gone. And Corker, if he wins, will be branded racist as well. I can’t imagine very many moderates who want to be seen with the guys who won becuause he ran an ad that spooked racist fears in the old south that black men and white women might have sex.

I will say also that I’m completely dumbfounded by Connecticut. Lieberman leads in statewide polls, but it is all Republican and indy support. Solid Democrats are backing Lamont. It seems though, the worst likely scenario is that Lieberman wins, and decides to caucus with the GOP. I just don’t see that happening. He knows that if he wants to have a career beyond this term, he has to try to beef up his Dem bona fides and he’ll caucus with the Dems. Otherwise, next election season he won’t get the Dem nomination again and any indy Dem votes he gets this time will be gone next time. So that state will remain solid blue.

An update for Texas. I still think Edwards will win by double digits, even with the latest Taylor attack, which I seem to remember him saying he wouldn’t use in the campaign when this all came out a long time ago. I feel pretty good about Lampson winning by a greater than 5-point margin, especially now that poll watchers are going to go there and stop poll workers from breaking the law by telling them to vote for the write-in candidate. I think we’ll see depressed Republican turnout in those two districts and that will be significant in the gubernatorial race.

I’m also hearing about lines for early voting, which makes me feel pretty good as well. These elections were going to be decided by turnout and really, the more people who show up, the better. It has been a small niche of ultra-conservative GOPers who have decided recent elections and turnout in the 40% range would mean a lot more people besides them want to voice their opinion. That opinion tends to be contrary and means votes for Bell or the indies. I’m still feeling good about saying Bell has a real shot. Unless people are rabid Kinky or Strayhorn voters, I think they’ll get in the booth vote Dem so that Perry won’t be re-elected, which clearly is what a majority of Texans want. If I’m wrong about that, then Perry will win by 10 points. If I’m right, Bell wins by three.

And how about that Hank Gilbert? I want to say he’ll win by two or three points, but don’t quote me.

And Mary Beth Harrell? I still think she’ll win by 2-5 thousand votes. It will be a squeaker.