Common Sense

That’s really misleading, since I cannot possibly make real predictions. I’m a cripple, not a psychic.

But I can think out loud, as it were, about how I feel this election is shaping up now that early voting has started and the big day is only two weeks away.

First off, the gubernatorial race: Call me crazy, but I still feel, as I felt when his name first came up in January of ‘05, that Chris Bell can pull it off.

It is dependant on a number of factors, though. One is that we have to have everybody who doesn’t like Gov. Goodhair show up to vote. Public sentiment against the current party is at an all-time high, but that doesn’t mean that people will get off their lazy asses and fulfill their constitutional oblligations.

Two is if evangelicals show up to vote. All of last year was spent identifying evangelicals and extreme social conservatives with Prop 2. Perry thought he would need them in the primary, but it turned out he needed them for the general.

Since last year, he’s not really done anything, which is kind of the point. He’s the governor who couldn’t finance schools and only the real whackos are sticking with him right now. The problem is that 25-30% of Texans are extreme whackos. Who knew? In that year, the national view of Republicans has changed. If national polling is an indicator, then it is possible that those whackos won’t feel the need to wait in line for an hour to vote come election day. Only the partisan whackos will.

Three, we have two races that are going to depress GOP turnout: Chet Edwards and Nick Lampson. If DeLay had still been in it, the race in TX-22 might be closer, but as it is, I’d be embarrassed if I were a Republican in Sugar Land. I certainly would not show up on election day to write in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (Ed. note: Without looking it up, I can’t even be sure I spelled her name right, which only proves my point). The race here in TX-17, if you believe the polling that has been released, has Edwards up by 21 points. That certainly doesn’t energize me to know I’m backing the guy 20 points down with two weeks to go.

That’s not going to depress a lot of votes, but in a midterm year when we normally have less than 30% tunrout, a few thousand votes will make all the difference.

Four, I think that among the three anti-Perry vote getters, Bell will be the one to consolidate more and break out of that pack. I just cannot believe that people will go into the booth two weeks from now and pick Kinky Friedman or Carole Strayhorn, knowing full well that they cannot get elected but that Rick Perry will.
Kinky supporters have always been a mystery to me.  They always tell me that they are independents because they are tired of the ‘politics as usual’ way of doing things in Washington or Austin or anywhere. The guy in the tailored suit with the rags to riches success story and the poll-tested answers to all our questions. Kinky is the same thing, just a different way. He wears a costume, that hat and those cigars, has his own success story and he tells you what you want to hear. The only difference is, instead of poll-tested answers he’s got 30 years of experience as a musician/”comedian” to know how to talk to an audience. It’s just an act with him and I want to vote for a person not an act. After all, we’re talking about a 4 year term in Austin, not two weeks headlining in Vegas.

I don’t see a lot of loyalty for Grandma “my middle name is flip flop”… I’ve forgotten what her last names are, but I’m pretty sure her middle name is “flip flop.” I looked it up on her birth certificate which was right next to Jayden Federline’s. See what I did there? I used current events to make it sound like I’m top of things everywhere.

There are only two candidates with a GOTV effort worth talking about in this race anyway. The Republican one, which is formidable to be sure, and the Democrat’s. Usually, the Dems don’t get their people out very well, but I see a sea change within the energy of the party and I think they can push their identified voters to show up. Kinky and Carole don’t have that; they have to rely on people supporting them to actually feel like voting or knowing when and where and how to vote. There’s no machinery there.

Now for the caveats. My assumption is that Karl Rove’s vaunted and much-ballyhooed 72-hour GOTV effort is more bark than bite. I don’t see him turning out massive numbers of anybody, even in red-state Texas. I also have assumed that evangelicals will not turn out in droves. They will turn out, and they will support Republicans, but I don’t think as many as the GOP would like and enough to make a difference.

I’ve also assumed that my polling data is correct, or at least close enough to make a judgement call. The latest is that there might be an internal poll showing Bell within 5 points of Perry, but until I see it, I can’t believe it. The Edwards number was their internal poll, it could be way off. And the pissed off Republicans in national polls could be wildly overestimated.

And the people in Sugar Land could be so pissed off that Tom DeLay got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, that they want to make Lampson pay and thus will show up on election day with councilwoman Gibbs’ full name written on their hands so that it gets spelled correctly.

And monkeys might fly out of my butt.

Truth is, we are way too far out to make these kinds of predictions. Too many variables and too many confluences affect the way people will vote on that far off day of Nov. 7. Telling you numbers now would be as accurate as closing my eyes and throwing darts at a map to determine where I should spend the rest of my life. I mean, that’s how people end up in New Jersey.

But I do have a history of picking numbers, and aside from Prop 2, John Mabry, John Kerry and those goofballs in Oklahoma, I think I’ve done pretty well at it. So, here goes.

If my predicted Perfect Storm happens, Bell will win 32-30 over Perry, with Kinky and Carole splitting the rest. If it doesn’t happen then Perry with 34%, Bell at about 25%, Kinky and Carole splitting the rest with Carole on the high side. If I’m right, I’m going to make a friend of mine give me a political nickname. He’s heard me say all along that Bell can do it and he’s doubted. If I’m right, he has to call me… Wunderkind. Well, Boy Genius and The Architect are already taken, and if he calls me Wunderkind, people will ask why and he’ll have to explain how great I am.

I’ll be nice and say Chet will win by 15 points, but that internal number had 12% undecided, and they were from Taylor’s side. I’m being nice and saying some will pick Taylor instead of just staying home. If it’s 10 points, I think that’s still inside the spread. Any less and I’ll buy a round for Taylor staffers at their election night party.

As for the senate race, KBH 49-45%. I think he monumental numbers have tanked just by virtue of that R by her name and some pathetic attempts to deflect BAR’s attacks. I just don’t think it will be enough to overcome her.

In the Lite Guv race, Dewhurst in a walk.

I’m not sure because I have yet to hear any solid numbers in the Ag Commissioner race, but I feel like Hank Gilbert has gotten out there and made himself known to the people who actually care who the Ag Commissioner is for reasons other than political ones. Hank by 5 points.

I also feel like Carter has made an ass of himself and Mary Beth Harrell has captured some of the anti-war sentiment while simultaneously deflecting criticism for that stance because her son is in Iraq. Not that that is a political thing, but it doesn’t hurt her chances. She’s picked up endorsements and recognition… Mary Beth will walk the tightrope and win. Hard to say by how much, I’d say the spread is 2,000 to 5,000 votes. If she loses, or wins by more than that, I’ll organize a care package for her son from Trib staff. If I’m right… I’ll organize a care package for her son from Trib staff. I’m that kind of guy.

Any other races, I don’t think I’m anywhere near equipped to handicap. But I’ll throw out some guesses. I look for Conrad Burns to lose his seat in Montana, DeWine and Santorum are toast, I think Allen will hold on but his name will be mud in the senate and any chance of advancement is now gone. I think Ford will win in Tennessee, 51-49%, just from the backlash over the black man/white woman sex ad that the RNC is running. I’m giving Tennessee as much credit as I gave Oklahoma in 2004. Don’t let me down like they did, Volunteers!