Common Sense

After all the talk about the RNCC pulling its money out of the TX-17 race because Taylor looks like a lost cause, KCEN-TV is reporting that the DCCC is now pulling money from Edwards’ campaign.

It looks like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee thinks that Chet Edwards has the District 17 seat in the bag.

Wednesday it pulled money from Edward’s re-election campaign, just one day after reports that the National Republican Congressional Committee pulled advertising money from the Van Taylor campaign.

Jessica Shafer from the Edwards campaign said their polls show the incumbent has a 21 point lead, and that’s why the national committee pulled its funding.

Edwards is a strong fundraiser, so DCCC was probably here because they were expecting a tough, expensive race that would come down to the wire. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

Not only does Edwards have a commanding lead in his own polling, but larger national trends could be influencing this race. The war in Iraq, and Taylor’s close association as a veteran supporter of the war, could be turning off moderate Republicans and Independents. In national polls, those two groups have swayed to the opinion that at best, the administration and Congress have totally screwed everything up with their handling of the war, and at worst have been lying to intentionally drag us into an unnecessary war. So 64% now oppose the Iraq War.
The Foley Congressional sex scandal, including the perceived cover up by GOP leadership, along with the news from David Kuo’s new book, Tempting Faith, could be depressing evangelical Republican voters. That’s a key consituency that Taylor must mobilize to win. Even in a presidential election year with strong support from the White House, Arlene Wohlgemuth wasn’t able to win this district. Taylor was going to have to identify and get out even more of that key group just to win, and its starting to look like some are just going to stay home.

There are still three weeks until election day, and anything can happen in that amount of time. But the trend is definitely in Edwards’ favor.

After all the talk about the RNCC pulling its money out of the TX-17 race because Taylor looks like a lost cause, KCEN-TV is reporting that the DCCC is now pulling money from Edwards’ campaign.

It looks like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee thinks that Chet Edwards has the District 17 seat in the bag.

Wednesday it pulled money from Edward’s re-election campaign, just one day after reports that the National Republican Congressional Committee pulled advertising money from the Van Taylor campaign.

Jessica Shafer from the Edwards campaign said their polls show the incumbent has a 21 point lead, and that’s why the national committee pulled its funding.

Edwards is a strong fundraiser, so DCCC was probably here because they were expecting a tough, expensive race that would come down to the wire. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

Not only does Edwards have a commanding lead in his own polling, but larger national trends could be influencing this race. The war in Iraq, and Taylor’s close association as a veteran supporter of the war, could be turning off moderate Republicans and Independents. In national polls, those two groups have swayed to the opinion that at best, the administration and Congress have totally screwed everything up with their handling of the war, and at worst have been lying to intentionally drag us into an unnecessary war. So 64% now oppose the Iraq War.
The Foley Congressional sex scandal, including the perceived cover up by GOP leadership, along with the news from David Kuo’s new book, Tempting Faith, could be depressing evangelical Republican voters. That’s a key consituency that Taylor must mobilize to win. Even in a presidential election year with strong support from the White House, Arlene Wohlgemuth wasn’t able to win this district. Taylor was going to have to identify and get out even more of that key group just to win, and its starting to look like some are just going to stay home.

There are still three weeks until election day, and anything can happen in that amount of time. But the trend is definitely in Edwards’ favor.