Roll Call outlook
Published by Nate Nance May 22nd, 2006 in National Politics, Texas PoliticsAn anonymous reader was nice enough to email practically the complete election special from Roll Call. I’ll post it all after the jump, but I wanted to at least put the prospectus for TX-17 up front for you.
17th district
Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)
8th term (51 percent)
Outlook: Leans DemocraticMaybe it’s time to finally give Edwards his due. He’s been a target in recent cycles because he represents a Republican district that, by the numbers, should elect a GOP Congressman (at present, his most famous constituent is a married father of twins who owns a ranch in Crawford).
Yet he just keeps winning.
Maybe it’s because he actually votes like the moderate Democrat many of his colleagues claim to be but aren’t; maybe it’s because he’s mastered the art of constituent services, including bringing home the bacon; maybe it’s because his constituents see him as one of them, as he graduated from Texas A&M University.
Still, while Edwards looks to be in decent shape at the moment, he is not safe.
This year, Republicans are throwing a wealthy Iraq war veteran at him who has no previous experience running for political office.
Van Taylor (R) has the kind of profile and positions on the issues that are sure to appeal to voters in a district that gave President Bush 70 percent of the vote in 2004. And he’s got money of his own to spend should it become necessary.
His problem is that he’s not native to the district, and that can rankle sensibilities in the Waco-area 17th, where most residents who live there are in for the long haul.
Taylor had to work to dispose of a severely underfunded former Congressional aide, Tucker Anderson, in the Republican primary. That’s definitely not a reason to count him out, but it suggests he has some work to do to get himself prepared to take on an old pro like Edwards.
Edwards closed the first quarter of the year ahead in fundraising, with $1.3 million in the bank, compared to less than $200,000 for Taylor.
I think that’s about right. Taylor is a seventh-generation Texan, I think, but that is still no substitute for graduating as an Aggie. I also concur with their assessment that Edwards is a moderate Democrat that votes that way. I might even venture to say that he is somewhat conservative and votes the way the people in the district expect him to vote.
This kind of race favors the person with fundraising prowess and experience. Edwards has both and is generally liked in the district. He certainly is the “low-hanging fruit” that Conway claimed today. On the contrary, Roll Call doesn’t even list him as vulnerable.
And one of the articles points out that if the Supreme Court decides the 2003 redistricting map is unconstitutional (not likely to happen, but still a possibility) then we might go back to the 2002 map, leaving Taylor at a distinct disadvantage.
A Sweep the Republicans Don’t Want
May 22, 2006
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What a difference six months makes.
The last time we put together this list, we believed that four Democrats were among the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents in the nation. Today’s list finds no Democrats among the most threatened. Not a one. Zero. Nada. Can you feel those breezes blowing?
Alert readers of this entire 36-page election preview will notice that we’ve rated nine non-open-seat House races as tossups. Yet only eight of those incumbents are included on the vulnerable list, while one Republican incumbent who’s in a GOP-leaning district is included here. In the current environment, we think the races are rated properly, and we think this list is accurate, too. Call it a gut instinct.
We admittedly had doubts about whether some of the people included here really belong. They have very good opponents in very tough districts, and they all could lose. But GOP Reps. Clay Shaw, Christopher Shays, Rob Simmons and Heather Wilson have defied the odds again and again, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they did so this fall.
By the time we publish our final list in October, there could be some Democrats on it. We’ll be watching Reps. Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Melissa Bean (Ill.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) especially closely.
And there’s one Democrat that we could have included here but didn’t — for the simple reason that we believe Rep. William Jefferson (La.) won’t even be on the ballot come Election Day.
Chris Cannon (R-Utah)
Cannon may be the anti-immigration hardliners’ first political scalp. A moderate on immigration, Cannon lost the state GOP convention earlier this month, and he faces a very tough primary against real estate developer John Jacob. A political neophyte, Jacob has spent about $250,000 of his own money on the election thus far and could shell out $1 million altogether. That may be enough for voters to fire Cannon.
Geoff Davis (R-Ky.)
He won the seat in 2004, beating a liberal newspaper columnist by 10 points at the same time President Bush ran 27 points ahead of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). This time, ex-Rep. Ken Lucas (D-Ky.), who defeated Davis by 3 points in 2002, wants his old job back. And there is no popular Republican at the top of the ticket; in fact, with Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s (R) recent indictment, Bluegrass State Republicans are on the defensive. A poll done for Lucas recently showed him 10 points ahead of Davis. This is one of several rematches the Democrats might win this cycle.
Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.)
Two races, two 2-point victories: Gerlach’s lucky streak may be running out. He did have almost $1.2 million in the bank as of March 31, but his challenger, attorney Lois Murphy (D), was closing in on $1 million, and she’s a more seasoned candidate than she was in 2004. What’s more, Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is going to try to duplicate the 2-1 margin he ran up in the Philadelphia suburbs four years ago, which should work to Murphy’s advantage.
John Hostettler (R-Ind.)
If the Democrats don’t beat Hostettler this time, they never will. Although they’ve hyped their candidates before, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) seems like the real deal: conservative, accomplished, handsome and a proven votegetter from the district’s most populous area. Ellsworth ended March with $533,000 on hand; Hostettler, whose fundraising is almost always nonexistent, had $56,000. Hostettler wins with a loyal band of conservative activists, but there could be a new sheriff in town come January 2007.
Bob Ney (R-Ohio)
National Democrats had hoped Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer would win the Democratic primary earlier this month. Instead, Dover Law Director Zack Space, who is largely untested politically, is the Democratic nominee. But it hardly matters. Ney appears to be in serious legal jeopardy for his ties to Jack Abramoff. And even though his East Ohio district is plenty conservative, he’s in political jeopardy as well.
Clay Shaw (R-Fla.)
Every few cycles, Shaw gets a tough challenge, and state Sen. Ron Klein (D) may be his toughest challenger yet. Klein is young and aggressive and a whiz at fundraising, banking more than $1.5 million through March 31. But despite health problems, Shaw took in a robust $750,000 in the first three months of 2006 and finished March with more than $2 million on hand. His Gold Coast district has preferred the Democrats to President Bush by 4 points in each of the past two White House elections, and Shaw’s fate may ultimately be linked to the popularity — or lack thereof — of the new Medicare prescription drug plan.
Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) and Rob Simmons (R-Conn.)
Who’s more vulnerable? On pure numbers alone, it’s Simmons. His district preferred Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) to President Bush by 10 points in 2004, while Shays’ district gave Kerry a 6-point edge. Shays is a well-known GOP maverick who is often at odds with his party’s leaders. Simmons, less senior and less well-known, may simply be more vulnerable to national trends as a result.
On the other hand, Simmons is a tougher campaigner than Shays, with a slightly less well-regarded opponent. Because Shays has a higher profile, his “lapses” in the eyes of his generally moderate to liberal constituents — like supporting the war in Iraq and appearing recently with Bush in the district — could hurt him more. Toss a coin — in this environment, both are in trouble.
Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.)
With a popular President Bush at the top of the ticket winning 59 percent of the 9th district vote, Sodrel eked by then-Rep. Baron Hill (D) by just 1,400 votes — the second-closest House race of the 2004 cycle. Now Hill is seeking a comeback, and the atmosphere is much more favorable for Democrats, even in conservative southeast Indiana. This is the rubber match for Sodrel and Hill: The Democrat beat the Republican by 5 points in 2002. They’re pretty close on the money front — Sodrel finished March with $846,000 in the bank, while Hill had $688,000. And they should be pretty close from now until Election Day.
Heather Wilson (R-N.M.)
This perennial Democratic target drew just about the toughest Democratic opponent she could in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D). And while voters see Wilson as competent and intelligent, they’ve never really warmed to her. As a Hispanic woman and a New Mexico native, Madrid is better-equipped to connect with the electorate. Wilson has been moving fast to the political middle of late, but she may not be fast enough to outpace the national winds.
Anti-GOP Breeze Blows Locally and Nationally
May 22, 2006
By Lauren W. Whittington,
Roll Call Staff
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National or local?
Even as Democratic gains in November now appear certain, the heads of the partisan House campaign committees continue to disagree over whether the midterm elections will turn on a national message of change or be decided solely on local issues.
Either way, the political atmospherics in a number of key states could end up having an impact on individual races there — and quite possibly decide who controls the House majority next Congress.
Among the seven states where these unique factors are at play — from unpopular governors to a growing tide of voter discontent — 17 House races are currently rated by Roll Call as tossup or only slightly leaning in one party’s favor. A dozen of those races feature vulnerable Republican incumbents.
And these conditions only compound the anti-GOP sentiment at the national level and diminish the Republican argument that voters’ local concerns will trump all others.
“When 65, 68 percent of the country say the country is headed off in the wrong direction and they’ve soured on both the Congress and the president, this is not won off a, ‘I built you this bridge, re-elect me’” message, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.).
He also believes the climate in certain states could help bring home the broader Democratic message of change versus the status quo.
“You’ve got a national environment and in those states a local environment, so they are reinforcing the context on which an election is fought,” Emanuel said. “Obviously, each race is individual. They are also part of a paradigm in which people decide whether they want to continue or change direction. It’s that simple.”
Whether those local and statewide factors could further fan a Democratic wind remains to be seen, but they do make it easier for pundits and prognosticators to see a Democratic takeover of the chamber as a reality.
Republicans have long maintained that elections will be decided on the strength of individual Members, not any outside influences.
“You either love your Congressperson or you like your Congressperson,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.), putting his own spin on polling that tests incumbent re-election numbers. “I don’t see any anti-incumbent wave.”
At a briefing with reporters last week, Reynolds reiterated — as he has at every political roundtable this cycle — that competitive races across the country will be won on the ground and centered on messages uniquely tailored to each district.
He predicted that pocketbook issues and other matters of particular concern to voters locally will be more of a driving factor than the culture of corruption message Democrats are pushing.
“I’ve never seen the action of one Member affect the outcome of the election of another,” Reynolds said, referring to Democrats’ attempts to tie GOP incumbents to the ethical problems of those Members involved in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal or the bribery scheme involving disgraced ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.).
It is a common phrase in Reynolds’ talking points and may amount to wishful thinking.
Emanuel isn’t yet willing to predict how large the party’s gains might be, but he knows one thing.
“I’d rather be us than them in this environment,” he said. “If you look at the field and look at the races, we’re on offense, and they’re playing goalie protectant.”
PENNSYLVANIA: Throw the Bums Out?
If there’s anywhere in the country where evidence of an anti-incumbent wave is building, it is in the Keystone State, and last week’s state legislative races are the proof.
The state Senate’s top two GOP leaders, as well as 15 state House incumbents, were defeated in primaries as voters expressed outrage over an attempted legislative pay raise.
Democrats also won a historic state Senate special election victory, picking up a seat in Chester County for the first time in recent memory. Chester County is in the southeastern part of the state — the region that is playing host to a trio of hotly contested House races.
It remains to be seen whether voter anger on the legislative level will translate into more trouble for vulnerable GOP Reps. Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Michael Fitzpatrick, but all three have to be more concerned after seeing last week’s results.
Pennsylvania is holding Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2006, and both are competitive.
There is also some belief that a “throw the bums out” wave could cut across party lines — look no further than Gov. Ed Rendell’s (D) recent re-election numbers for evidence.
The only problem is House Republicans are not targeting any incumbent Democrats in the state and have very little opportunity to make gains even if a “plague on both your houses” anti-incumbent wave does occur.
OHIO: How Low Can the GOP Go?
Even Reynolds acknowledges the obvious political reality caused by scandal-tarred outgoing Gov. Bob Taft’s (R) abysmal approval ratings.
“Ohio isn’t a pretty picture,” Reynolds said. “But none of my colleagues on my side are running for governor. They’re running for re-election to the House.”
True enough. But the overall bleak picture for the state GOP has given Democrats an opening to make a play for two House seats that have not been targeted in years.
In another election year, Republicans would likely be on offense in the battleground state credited with pushing President Bush across the finish line in 2004. Instead, they are almost entirely on defense.
GOP Reps. Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce, who represent suburban/exurban districts in Cincinnati and Columbus, respectively, have to be a little nervous about what a statewide Democratic avalanche might do to their re-election prospects.
Democrats are also targeting Rep. Bob Ney (R) — whose connection to the Abramoff scandal has only helped Democrats in Ohio connect the dots between corruption at the state and national levels.
And the state GOP problems will no doubt also make it more difficult for the party to pick up the Democratic-held open 6th district — a swing seat that in any other election year they might have a better than even chance of winning.
KENTUCKY and INDIANA: Time for a Change?
These two states share more than just a border — they both have unpopular first-term Republican governors.
Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) was indicted two weeks ago on three misdemeanor charges of conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination after an investigation into the state government’s hiring practices.
Fletcher, a former House Member, is not up for re-election until next year. But this November will provide voters with their first chance to signal their discontent.
Currently, Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is the most vulnerable Bluegrass State Republican. But Democrats are hoping that a poor atmosphere for the GOP in the state will help to generate competitive races for two other Republican incumbents.
Meanwhile, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has seen his popularity plummet in his first term in office. An Indianapolis Star poll in early March showed his approval rating had dropped to 37 percent, as voters expressed that Daniels had tried to make too many changes too quickly.
There is already some concern that Daniels’ unpopularity may impact state legislative elections this fall, when half of the state Senate and all of the state House seats are up.
Reps. John Hostettler (R) and Mike Sodrel (R) are among the most vulnerable incumbents in the country this year, and Rep. Chris Chocola (R) also could be in serious trouble if a Democratic wave washes over the state.
Another boost for Democrats is that there are no competitive contests at the top of the ballot in Indiana. National Democrats are almost always a drag on the party’s House candidates, as Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was in 2004, and the lack of big-ticket races could further depress turnout among disaffected Republicans.
It is also worth noting that there are currently four competitive House races centered at the axis of where Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio meet.
Voters in those districts share media markets and therefore are well informed of the GOP troubles in neighboring states — yet another factor that must be unsettling for national Republicans.
NEW YORK: An Empire Coronation?
The Empire State is hosting Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2006, and Democrats are currently on track to win both by landslides.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll showed state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the de facto Democratic gubernatorial nominee, with 66 percent and 67 percent support against the two candidates seeking the GOP nod. The same polling firm found Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) scoring 63 percent and 64 percent over her two potential GOP Republican rivals.
Bottom line: There is little question that the two upballot races will essentially be coronations.
But just as significantly, the state GOP is in disarray, with ideological and institutional factions at war as outgoing Gov. George Pataki (R) takes leave of the state to run for president in 2008.
What remains to be seen is whether the lack of upballot competition will depress GOP turnout so much as to jeopardize the re-election chances of a handful of Republican Members who ordinarily would be safe.
The central New York seat made vacant by Rep. Sherwood Boehlert’s (R) pending retirement is sure to be a battle to the finish, and state and national Democrats believe they have a legitimate shot at defeating Reps. Sue Kelly, Randy Kuhl and John Sweeney.
Reynolds said he isn’t worried about the top of the ticket becoming a problem for him or his GOP colleagues. He said because of the Democratic tilt of the state no Republican ever gets a pass and noted that in 1990, when then-Gov. Mario Cuomo (D) beat his Republican challenger by 33 points, no House seats switched hands in the Empire State.
“It taught us that you have to be putting together a good program for voter ID and turnout,” Reynolds said.
TEXAS: Map Mayhem?
Compared to the previous cycle, there are few — two to be exact — competitive Congressional contests in the Lone Star State this year. But that could change in an instant if the Supreme Court rules that the current Congressional map — redrawn in 2003 to exact GOP gains — is unconstitutional.
There could be any number of remedies then — including a return to the map used for the 2002 elections, which gave Democrats a 17-15 edge in the state delegation. The current Texas lineup is 21 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
LOUISIANA: Katrina’s Waves?
Unlike most of the others on this list, the Bayou State is not a hotbed of Congressional activity right now.
But it will be interesting to watch what happens when voters go to the polls for the all-party primaries in November — just two months after the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
If voters choose to use the ballot box to express some of their outrage at the federal and state government response to the disaster, some unexpected results could follow.
Currently, freshman Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is the only incumbent facing a competitive contest.
Emanuel said he has seen no evidence to this point of potential voter backlash there.
“I haven’t seen it yet based on what I’ve seen in Charlie’s district,” Emanuel said.
More than likely the disaster will have more of an impact on the 2007 statewide elections, when Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) will face re-election.
Pollsters on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that Katrina was a tipping point in the slide of President Bush’s approval ratings and the overall depressed mood of the country.
At the very least, recounting Katrina’s devastation — and the government reaction to it — just before the midterm elections could impact the mood of some voters in other states where there are more competitive races this fall.
Little Things Add Up for Democratic Takeover
May 22, 2006
By Josh Kurtz,
Roll Call Staff
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The national political winds may favor the Democrats this election cycle, but all politics is still local. And that’s good news for Senate Democrats, too.
The Democrats are in good shape not just because poll numbers for President Bush and the Republican Congress are scraping rock bottom. They’re in good shape because one previously steady GOP incumbent is seeking re-election in a state where Republicans are running for their lives. And because another GOP incumbent in a solidly Republican state may find himself and his associates in legal jeopardy. One once-shaky Democratic incumbent seems safe because of the Republicans’ inability to recruit anyone who isn’t politically radioactive into the race. The list goes on and on.
“We continue to feel good,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) said recently. “We feel good about the national situation, and we feel good about our local races as well.”
Schumer’s Republican counterpart, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), acknowledged the difficult national picture for the GOP but said Republican Senate candidates are stronger for it.
“Because for many months we’ve been in this situation with the wind in our faces, they are fully prepared,” she told reporters recently. “There’s no illusion that these are going to be easy races. In other words, they’re prepared for aggressive races.”
Despite what the Senate campaign chiefs say, in reality, it’s a hodgepodge year on the Senate battlefront. And while it’s easy enough to make certain predictions, it is difficult to identify real trends.
That’s a stark contrast from the past few election cycles. In 2004, for example, you could see Republican gains from a mile away. In a presidential year, five Democratic Senate incumbents from the South retired, and sure enough, with Bush racking up huge margins in those states, the GOP picked up all five seats.
The 2002 cycle also was a good one for Republicans, and most of the close Senate races went their way — though the trend wasn’t altogether evident until the weekend before the election. And in 2000, six Senate incumbents lost, five Republicans and one Democrat.
This time, the Democrats’ top pickup opportunities — and the Republicans’ — are a product of specific circumstances as much as the national mood. Not that national trends don’t come into play.
In Senate races, “you actually have personalities emerge,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster and Roll Call contributing writer. “But the national atmospherics set the starting point.”
The Democrats’ recipe for a Senate majority takes the atmospherics and adds these unique elements:
• Their top target, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), is a conservative representing a state that has voted Democratic in the past four presidential elections. The Democratic nominee, state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., is uniquely equipped to cut into Santorum’s support among socially conservative Catholic voters.
• Their second target, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), is in grave danger of losing his primary to a conservative challenger, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R). If Laffey wins, the seat is all but certain to fall into Democratic hands. Even if Chafee wins, he will face a very tough battle against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in a solidly Democratic state.
• Another target, Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), probably would not be in much trouble if it weren’t for the suggestions that his links to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff could put Burns and some of his former staffers in legal peril.
• At the start of the cycle, Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) did not appear to be in any kind of trouble at all. But as the situation in Ohio has deteriorated for Republicans, DeWine has become imperiled. At first, national Democrats were begging someone of stature to get into the race. As the climate in Ohio improved for them, Democrats briefly had two Senate candidates. But they caught a break when Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (D) reluctantly deferred to Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
• In Missouri, once a bellwether but trending Republican, state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) would be a good recruit by any standard in the race against Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.). But McCaskill is aided by her near-miss run for governor in 2004 — and the possibility that voters may be feeling buyer’s remorse now that Gov. Matt Blunt’s (R) poll numbers are plunging. Talent may not be helping his cause by opposing a ballot measure to promote stem-cell research in the state.
• In Arizona, Democrats are lucky to have multimillionaire developer Jim Pederson (D), who is close to popular Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), challenging Sen. Jon Kyl (R) in a year when Napolitano is up for re-election. Short of Napolitano running for Senate herself, no one else would have made the race competitive.
• In Virginia, a rising Democratic tide could sink a boat that Sen. George Allen (R) is trying to launch nationally. Democrats — to their own surprise — find themselves with two potentially solid Senate candidates at a time when their party is ascendant, and at a time when voters are only too aware that Allen probably would rather be in Iowa and New Hampshire than worrying about re-election. Former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) and high-tech entrepreneur Harris Miller (D) both got into the race late and the primary is relatively early, meaning they have little time to inflict much damage on one another.
Then, there are the races that never happened. In Nebraska, the Republicans inexplicably took their toughest potential challenger to Sen. Ben Nelson (D) off the playing field when President Bush nominated then-Gov. Mike Johanns (R) to be secretary of Agriculture. And the GOP’s inability to find an alternative to Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) in the Sunshine State Senate race is also a mystery.
But as grim as the picture may look for Republicans, a quartet of Democratic-held seats are in play due to unique local circumstances, rather than the national state of affairs — a stopgap, perhaps, against potentially disastrous Election Day losses for the GOP. Consider:
• In New Jersey, people are weary of myriad scandals at the state and local level. And Republicans have a guy named Tom Kean running for Senate. Voters may or may not choose to ignore the “Jr.” at the end of his name.
• In the Maryland open-seat race, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is a good recruit by any measure. But in a very difficult year for Republicans in a very Democratic state, he still could win — in part because of black voters’ lingering resentment over the state Democratic establishment’s inability to promote minority candidates for statewide office.
• In Washington state, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) may suffer at the polls because many voters believe that Dino Rossi, the 2004 Republican candidate for governor, was robbed — by Democratic elections officials and judges.
• In Michigan, Republicans believe they can tie Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) to the increasingly unpopular Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), whose GOP challenger, Amway heir Dick DeVos, may drop $60 million into the contest.
“The whole situation in Michigan is very volatile,” said Ellen Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List, the Democratic-affiliated group that is working hard to re-elect both Stabenow and Granholm.
So by all means, keep your eye on the national trends. But as you attempt to figure out what the balance of power in the Senate will look like come January 2007, don’t forget the state-by-state nuances as well.
And here’s one other helpful hint: If you’re looking for one true Senate bellwether this year, where each party has a solid candidate and relatively few other political distractions — try Minnesota.
Southwest
May 22, 2006
By David M. Drucker, Nicole Duran, Josh Kurtz and Lauren W. Whittington,
Roll Call Staff
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Arizona| New Mexico | Oklahoma | Texas
Filing deadline: June 14
Primary: Sept. 12
Senate
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R)
2nd term: (79 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
The knock on Kyl is that he’s never faced a legitimate challenger. True or not, that’s definitely not the case this year with multimillionaire shopping center developer and Arizona Democratic Party insider Jim Pederson.
After some initial false starts, Pederson is now on the attack and on television, going after Kyl on key issues, including illegal immigration. Pederson also has lived up to the promise of his purse, dumping at least $2 million of his own money into the race thus far.
The result: Kyl’s lead in the polls has dropped from 22 points to a level that puts Pederson in striking distance. But for now, that’s all it is: striking distance.
Kyl still led Pederson by 11 points in the most recent poll and had banked $7.3 million by the end of the first quarter, to his opponent’s $2.7 million. And Pederson must first dispatch with a primary challenge from John Verkamp, a former Republican state Senator who switched parties in part because of his opposition to the Iraq war.
Kyl has positioned himself at the forefront of issues that matter to Arizonans generally and Republicans in particular — illegal immigration and the confirmation of President Bush’s judicial nominees among them.
Additionally, he stands to benefit from the strong support of Sen. John McCain (R) and Arizona’s Republican bent.
House
1st district
Incumbent: Rick Renzi (R)
2nd term (59 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
Renzi’s path to re-election has smoothed of late. The Democrats’ preferred challenger, American Indian Jack Jackson Jr., dropped out of the race in part because he was unable to raise money.
Now, four second-tier Democrats are battling each other for the right to take on Renzi, none of them nearly as well funded as the incumbent. Democratic activist and radio host Mike Caccioppoli (D), the noisiest of the group, finished the first quarter with $2,715 in cash on hand.
Renzi banked $673,710.
Democrats Susan Friedman, a marketing executive, retired dentist Vic McKerlie, and attorney Ellen Simon, who just jumped into the race, fared about the same as Caccioppoli on the money front. Simon now seems to be the favorite of state party leaders.
5th district
Incumbent: J.D. Hayworth (R)
6th term (59 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
With the entry of state Sen. Harry Mitchell (D) into the race, Hayworth’s coast to re-election got a little bumpy.
Mitchell combines party-insider status within the Arizona Democratic Party — he just resigned as its chairman — with the qualities of being well-liked and well-known earned from years of public service in portions of the Phoenix-area 5th district. He is a former mayor of Tempe — there is even a statue of him outside of City Hall.
Democrats are extremely high on Mitchell, who is being termed out of the state Senate. Other candidates who had jumped into the race or considered running cleared the field after Mitchell declared for the seat in mid-March.
But this race is still Hayworth’s to lose — and he has plenty of margin for error. The incumbent’s old 6th district had more Democratic pockets than does his current, Republican-leaning 5th district — and his races were not easy. Yet he still managed to get the W.
Republicans note that Mitchell offers a number of flaws that are easily exploitable — specifically, a legislative voting record that is too far to the left for Republicans and independents to stomach.
As of March 31, Hayworth led Mitchell in cash on hand, banking $687,407 compared to $20,435 for Mitchell. That disparity is sure to tighten some as the campaign progresses.
8th district
Open seat: Jim Kolbe (R) is retiring
Outlook: Tossup
Kolbe’s decision to call it quits has turned this seat into a prime target for Democrats this cycle and a prime opportunity.
The seat leans Republican, but moderately so, and depending on which Republican emerges from the GOP’s crowded primary, Democrats could have the edge heading into November. Of course whether they can capitalize depends on the outcome of their own multicandidate primary.
Among the dozen Republicans running, state Rep. Steve Huffman, who recently was endorsed by Kolbe — as well as former Arizona Republican Party Chairman Mike Hellon and 2004 GOP primary runner-up Randy Graf, a former state legislator — are considered the top three contenders.
Among the half-dozen or so Democrats running, former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords and longtime Tucson television news anchor Patty Weiss are considered the candidates to beat.
Giffords is the favorite of national Democrats, who believe her experience, business background and ability to raise money will have wide appeal in the politically moderate district. National Republicans are simply hoping Graf doesn’t win, as they worry his reputation as a staunch conservative won’t sell in the general election.
Regardless of who emerges from the Sept. 12 primaries, the general election could offer a window into how illegal immigration will play on Nov. 7.
Filing deadline: Passed
Primary: June 6
Senate
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D)
4th term (62 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
To Republicans’ regret, the taciturn Bingaman is almost getting a free pass this cycle.
Three candidates are competing in the GOP primary: state Sen. Joseph Carraro, physician Allen McCulloch and former Santa Fe City Councilman David Pfeffer.
Carraro is one of the state’s most persistent and articulate critics of Gov. Bill Richardson (D), but he entered the Senate race late and has not made much of a case — for himself or against Bingaman. Pfeffer, a former Democrat, has tried to make illegal immigration his signature issue, spending nine days recently walking the New Mexico-Mexico border to highlight the problem.
Almost by default, McCulloch now appears to be the Republican frontrunner. He had far and away the most money in the bank of GOP contenders at the end of March — $129,000 — and the support of most state Republican leaders.
Bingaman, with more than $1.8 million in the bank, will not have to sweat much this fall.
House
1st district
Incumbent: Heather Wilson (R)
4th full term (54 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
One of the marquee House races of the cycle, the battle between Wilson and state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) is already at full throttle and promises to intensify as the weeks progress. It is easy to anticipate the headlines touting this as a “catfight” of epic proportions.
Wilson and Madrid both are sharp, driven and savvy political players, and their race in many ways seems to exemplify all that is going on at the national level. Expect both Congressional campaign committees and several interest groups to spend liberally on the contest. EMILY’s List has already made Madrid’s election one of its top priorities, and Gov. Bill Richardson (D), in an attempt to burnish his presidential credentials, is sure to do all he can to push her over the top.
Like many Republican incumbents, especially those in swing districts like the Albuquerque-based 1st, Wilson seems to be trying to distance herself from President Bush and the more conservative policies of the Republican Congressional leadership as quickly as she can. And Madrid and national Democrats seem only too happy to call her on it.
But Madrid is not without her potential vulnerabilities: With a former Democratic state treasurer on trial in federal court, and the state’s current insurance superintendent on a leave of absence for alleged corruption, Madrid’s role as the state’s chief law enforcement officer is under intense scrutiny, and Republicans are accusing her of being too lenient on her fellow Democratic officeholders.
Both Wilson and Madrid will have plenty of money to get their message out — and to sully the reputation of their opponent. Through March 31, Wilson, who spent more than $3.4 million on her previous re-election, had more than $1.4 million on hand, while Madrid banked $826,000.
Filing deadline: June 7
Primary: July 25
Runoff: Aug. 22
House
5th district
Open seat: Ernest Istook (R) is running for governor
Outlook: Safe Republican
Istook’s departure to run for governor has left a competitive Republican primary in its wake, with five candidates battling to replace him.
Among the frontrunners: Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin; state Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode, off to a solid fundraising start; and state Rep. Kevin Calvey, who secured the Club for Growth endorsement.
State Rep. Fred Morgan is also running. And Oklahoma City Mayor Mike Cornett jumped into the race in mid-May. He could be formidable.
President Bush secured 64 percent of the vote in the Oklahoma City-area district in 2004, and it is considered reliably conservative Republican. But that hasn’t stopped three Democrats from entering their party’s primary: surgeon David Hunter, Oklahoma County Clerk Patricia Presley and teacher Bert Smith, the 2004 nominee against Istook. Presley, a former Republican, appears to be the party favorite.
Filing deadline: Passed
Primary: Passed
Runoff: Passed
Senate
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
2nd full term (65 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
The Democrats’ sacrificial lamb is Houston attorney Barbara Ann Radnofsky. She needed the runoff to defeat Democratic primary opponent Gene Kelly and isn’t expected to come near being able to compete with Hutchison financially.
The Senator led Radnofsky in cash on hand $8.8 million to $283,000 at the end of the first quarter of this year. More importantly, there isn’t any widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent in the majority of the Republican Lone Star State.
House
17th district
Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)
8th term (51 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Maybe it’s time to finally give Edwards his due. He’s been a target in recent cycles because he represents a Republican district that, by the numbers, should elect a GOP Congressman (at present, his most famous constituent is a married father of twins who owns a ranch in Crawford).
Yet he just keeps winning.
Maybe it’s because he actually votes like the moderate Democrat many of his colleagues claim to be but aren’t; maybe it’s because he’s mastered the art of constituent services, including bringing home the bacon; maybe it’s because his constituents see him as one of them, as he graduated from Texas A&M University.
Still, while Edwards looks to be in decent shape at the moment, he is not safe.
This year, Republicans are throwing a wealthy Iraq war veteran at him who has no previous experience running for political office.
Van Taylor (R) has the kind of profile and positions on the issues that are sure to appeal to voters in a district that gave President Bush 70 percent of the vote in 2004. And he’s got money of his own to spend should it become necessary.
His problem is that he’s not native to the district, and that can rankle sensibilities in the Waco-area 17th, where most residents who live there are in for the long haul.
Taylor had to work to dispose of a severely underfunded former Congressional aide, Tucker Anderson, in the Republican primary. That’s definitely not a reason to count him out, but it suggests he has some work to do to get himself prepared to take on an old pro like Edwards.
Edwards closed the first quarter of the year ahead in fundraising, with $1.3 million in the bank, compared to less than $200,000 for Taylor.
22nd district
Open seat: Tom DeLay (R) is resigning
Outlook: Tossup
The National Republican Congressional Committee breathed a big sigh of relief when word came down that the incumbent was going to abandon his re-election bid, as the multiple ethics scandals surrounding him were imperilling his electoral chances in his heavily Republican suburban Houston district.
Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) might not have a Republican opponent yet now that DeLay has dropped his re-election bid, but the 22nd looks a bit safer for Republicans with the former Majority Leader gone.
Lampson had been amassing a formidable war chest — more than $1.7 million on hand as of March 31 — from the national Democratic fundraising circuit, as partisans on the left licked their chops at the prospect of ousting “the Hammer.”
Simultaneously, polls showed that Delay’s connections to disgraced Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and his having to defend himself against charges he violated Texas election law, were taking their toll. Lampson was increasingly seen as a viable alternative there despite the fact that he is saddled with a liberal voting record from his days representing a now-obsolete neighboring Democratic seat.
Lampson continues to campaign hard and warm himself to the 22nd’s constituents, and his head start in fundraising is sure to serve him well once his Republican opponent emerges in early summer.
But this seat now appears slightly more secure for the GOP because that eventual candidate is likely to be a well-known public servant whose views and sensibilities more closely fit the district than Lampson’s. And unlike DeLay, he or she will not have the baggage of the soon-to-be former Representative.
In addition to resigning on June 9, DeLay plans to relocate his official residence outside of Texas to his home in Virginia. Per Texas election law, this will allow GOP officials representing the four counties that are at least partially included in the 22nd district to appoint his replacement on the November ballot.
The behind-the-scenes jockeying to secure that appointment began soon after DeLay announced he would resign. Thus far, the names most often mentioned as potentials include: lawyer Tom Campbell, who was runner-up to DeLay in the four-way March GOP primary; state Rep. Charlie Howard; state Sen. Mike Jackson; Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs; state Rep. Robert Talton; state Rep. Larry Taylor; and Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace.
Roll Call outlook
Published by Nate Nance May 22nd, 2006 in National Politics, Texas PoliticsAn anonymous reader was nice enough to email practically the complete election special from Roll Call. I’ll post it all after the jump, but I wanted to at least put the prospectus for TX-17 up front for you.
17th district
Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)
8th term (51 percent)
Outlook: Leans DemocraticMaybe it’s time to finally give Edwards his due. He’s been a target in recent cycles because he represents a Republican district that, by the numbers, should elect a GOP Congressman (at present, his most famous constituent is a married father of twins who owns a ranch in Crawford).
Yet he just keeps winning.
Maybe it’s because he actually votes like the moderate Democrat many of his colleagues claim to be but aren’t; maybe it’s because he’s mastered the art of constituent services, including bringing home the bacon; maybe it’s because his constituents see him as one of them, as he graduated from Texas A&M University.
Still, while Edwards looks to be in decent shape at the moment, he is not safe.
This year, Republicans are throwing a wealthy Iraq war veteran at him who has no previous experience running for political office.
Van Taylor (R) has the kind of profile and positions on the issues that are sure to appeal to voters in a district that gave President Bush 70 percent of the vote in 2004. And he’s got money of his own to spend should it become necessary.
His problem is that he’s not native to the district, and that can rankle sensibilities in the Waco-area 17th, where most residents who live there are in for the long haul.
Taylor had to work to dispose of a severely underfunded former Congressional aide, Tucker Anderson, in the Republican primary. That’s definitely not a reason to count him out, but it suggests he has some work to do to get himself prepared to take on an old pro like Edwards.
Edwards closed the first quarter of the year ahead in fundraising, with $1.3 million in the bank, compared to less than $200,000 for Taylor.
I think that’s about right. Taylor is a seventh-generation Texan, I think, but that is still no substitute for graduating as an Aggie. I also concur with their assessment that Edwards is a moderate Democrat that votes that way. I might even venture to say that he is somewhat conservative and votes the way the people in the district expect him to vote.
This kind of race favors the person with fundraising prowess and experience. Edwards has both and is generally liked in the district. He certainly is the “low-hanging fruit” that Conway claimed today. On the contrary, Roll Call doesn’t even list him as vulnerable.
And one of the articles points out that if the Supreme Court decides the 2003 redistricting map is unconstitutional (not likely to happen, but still a possibility) then we might go back to the 2002 map, leaving Taylor at a distinct disadvantage.
A Sweep the Republicans Don’t Want
May 22, 2006
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What a difference six months makes.
The last time we put together this list, we believed that four Democrats were among the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents in the nation. Today’s list finds no Democrats among the most threatened. Not a one. Zero. Nada. Can you feel those breezes blowing?
Alert readers of this entire 36-page election preview will notice that we’ve rated nine non-open-seat House races as tossups. Yet only eight of those incumbents are included on the vulnerable list, while one Republican incumbent who’s in a GOP-leaning district is included here. In the current environment, we think the races are rated properly, and we think this list is accurate, too. Call it a gut instinct.
We admittedly had doubts about whether some of the people included here really belong. They have very good opponents in very tough districts, and they all could lose. But GOP Reps. Clay Shaw, Christopher Shays, Rob Simmons and Heather Wilson have defied the odds again and again, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they did so this fall.
By the time we publish our final list in October, there could be some Democrats on it. We’ll be watching Reps. Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Melissa Bean (Ill.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) especially closely.
And there’s one Democrat that we could have included here but didn’t — for the simple reason that we believe Rep. William Jefferson (La.) won’t even be on the ballot come Election Day.
Chris Cannon (R-Utah)
Cannon may be the anti-immigration hardliners’ first political scalp. A moderate on immigration, Cannon lost the state GOP convention earlier this month, and he faces a very tough primary against real estate developer John Jacob. A political neophyte, Jacob has spent about $250,000 of his own money on the election thus far and could shell out $1 million altogether. That may be enough for voters to fire Cannon.
Geoff Davis (R-Ky.)
He won the seat in 2004, beating a liberal newspaper columnist by 10 points at the same time President Bush ran 27 points ahead of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). This time, ex-Rep. Ken Lucas (D-Ky.), who defeated Davis by 3 points in 2002, wants his old job back. And there is no popular Republican at the top of the ticket; in fact, with Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s (R) recent indictment, Bluegrass State Republicans are on the defensive. A poll done for Lucas recently showed him 10 points ahead of Davis. This is one of several rematches the Democrats might win this cycle.
Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.)
Two races, two 2-point victories: Gerlach’s lucky streak may be running out. He did have almost $1.2 million in the bank as of March 31, but his challenger, attorney Lois Murphy (D), was closing in on $1 million, and she’s a more seasoned candidate than she was in 2004. What’s more, Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is going to try to duplicate the 2-1 margin he ran up in the Philadelphia suburbs four years ago, which should work to Murphy’s advantage.
John Hostettler (R-Ind.)
If the Democrats don’t beat Hostettler this time, they never will. Although they’ve hyped their candidates before, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) seems like the real deal: conservative, accomplished, handsome and a proven votegetter from the district’s most populous area. Ellsworth ended March with $533,000 on hand; Hostettler, whose fundraising is almost always nonexistent, had $56,000. Hostettler wins with a loyal band of conservative activists, but there could be a new sheriff in town come January 2007.
Bob Ney (R-Ohio)
National Democrats had hoped Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer would win the Democratic primary earlier this month. Instead, Dover Law Director Zack Space, who is largely untested politically, is the Democratic nominee. But it hardly matters. Ney appears to be in serious legal jeopardy for his ties to Jack Abramoff. And even though his East Ohio district is plenty conservative, he’s in political jeopardy as well.
Clay Shaw (R-Fla.)
Every few cycles, Shaw gets a tough challenge, and state Sen. Ron Klein (D) may be his toughest challenger yet. Klein is young and aggressive and a whiz at fundraising, banking more than $1.5 million through March 31. But despite health problems, Shaw took in a robust $750,000 in the first three months of 2006 and finished March with more than $2 million on hand. His Gold Coast district has preferred the Democrats to President Bush by 4 points in each of the past two White House elections, and Shaw’s fate may ultimately be linked to the popularity — or lack thereof — of the new Medicare prescription drug plan.
Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) and Rob Simmons (R-Conn.)
Who’s more vulnerable? On pure numbers alone, it’s Simmons. His district preferred Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) to President Bush by 10 points in 2004, while Shays’ district gave Kerry a 6-point edge. Shays is a well-known GOP maverick who is often at odds with his party’s leaders. Simmons, less senior and less well-known, may simply be more vulnerable to national trends as a result.
On the other hand, Simmons is a tougher campaigner than Shays, with a slightly less well-regarded opponent. Because Shays has a higher profile, his “lapses” in the eyes of his generally moderate to liberal constituents — like supporting the war in Iraq and appearing recently with Bush in the district — could hurt him more. Toss a coin — in this environment, both are in trouble.
Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.)
With a popular President Bush at the top of the ticket winning 59 percent of the 9th district vote, Sodrel eked by then-Rep. Baron Hill (D) by just 1,400 votes — the second-closest House race of the 2004 cycle. Now Hill is seeking a comeback, and the atmosphere is much more favorable for Democrats, even in conservative southeast Indiana. This is the rubber match for Sodrel and Hill: The Democrat beat the Republican by 5 points in 2002. They’re pretty close on the money front — Sodrel finished March with $846,000 in the bank, while Hill had $688,000. And they should be pretty close from now until Election Day.
Heather Wilson (R-N.M.)
This perennial Democratic target drew just about the toughest Democratic opponent she could in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D). And while voters see Wilson as competent and intelligent, they’ve never really warmed to her. As a Hispanic woman and a New Mexico native, Madrid is better-equipped to connect with the electorate. Wilson has been moving fast to the political middle of late, but she may not be fast enough to outpace the national winds.
Anti-GOP Breeze Blows Locally and Nationally
May 22, 2006
By Lauren W. Whittington,
Roll Call Staff
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National or local?
Even as Democratic gains in November now appear certain, the heads of the partisan House campaign committees continue to disagree over whether the midterm elections will turn on a national message of change or be decided solely on local issues.
Either way, the political atmospherics in a number of key states could end up having an impact on individual races there — and quite possibly decide who controls the House majority next Congress.
Among the seven states where these unique factors are at play — from unpopular governors to a growing tide of voter discontent — 17 House races are currently rated by Roll Call as tossup or only slightly leaning in one party’s favor. A dozen of those races feature vulnerable Republican incumbents.
And these conditions only compound the anti-GOP sentiment at the national level and diminish the Republican argument that voters’ local concerns will trump all others.
“When 65, 68 percent of the country say the country is headed off in the wrong direction and they’ve soured on both the Congress and the president, this is not won off a, ‘I built you this bridge, re-elect me’” message, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.).
He also believes the climate in certain states could help bring home the broader Democratic message of change versus the status quo.
“You’ve got a national environment and in those states a local environment, so they are reinforcing the context on which an election is fought,” Emanuel said. “Obviously, each race is individual. They are also part of a paradigm in which people decide whether they want to continue or change direction. It’s that simple.”
Whether those local and statewide factors could further fan a Democratic wind remains to be seen, but they do make it easier for pundits and prognosticators to see a Democratic takeover of the chamber as a reality.
Republicans have long maintained that elections will be decided on the strength of individual Members, not any outside influences.
“You either love your Congressperson or you like your Congressperson,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.), putting his own spin on polling that tests incumbent re-election numbers. “I don’t see any anti-incumbent wave.”
At a briefing with reporters last week, Reynolds reiterated — as he has at every political roundtable this cycle — that competitive races across the country will be won on the ground and centered on messages uniquely tailored to each district.
He predicted that pocketbook issues and other matters of particular concern to voters locally will be more of a driving factor than the culture of corruption message Democrats are pushing.
“I’ve never seen the action of one Member affect the outcome of the election of another,” Reynolds said, referring to Democrats’ attempts to tie GOP incumbents to the ethical problems of those Members involved in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal or the bribery scheme involving disgraced ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.).
It is a common phrase in Reynolds’ talking points and may amount to wishful thinking.
Emanuel isn’t yet willing to predict how large the party’s gains might be, but he knows one thing.
“I’d rather be us than them in this environment,” he said. “If you look at the field and look at the races, we’re on offense, and they’re playing goalie protectant.”
PENNSYLVANIA: Throw the Bums Out?
If there’s anywhere in the country where evidence of an anti-incumbent wave is building, it is in the Keystone State, and last week’s state legislative races are the proof.
The state Senate’s top two GOP leaders, as well as 15 state House incumbents, were defeated in primaries as voters expressed outrage over an attempted legislative pay raise.
Democrats also won a historic state Senate special election victory, picking up a seat in Chester County for the first time in recent memory. Chester County is in the southeastern part of the state — the region that is playing host to a trio of hotly contested House races.
It remains to be seen whether voter anger on the legislative level will translate into more trouble for vulnerable GOP Reps. Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Michael Fitzpatrick, but all three have to be more concerned after seeing last week’s results.
Pennsylvania is holding Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2006, and both are competitive.
There is also some belief that a “throw the bums out” wave could cut across party lines — look no further than Gov. Ed Rendell’s (D) recent re-election numbers for evidence.
The only problem is House Republicans are not targeting any incumbent Democrats in the state and have very little opportunity to make gains even if a “plague on both your houses” anti-incumbent wave does occur.
OHIO: How Low Can the GOP Go?
Even Reynolds acknowledges the obvious political reality caused by scandal-tarred outgoing Gov. Bob Taft’s (R) abysmal approval ratings.
“Ohio isn’t a pretty picture,” Reynolds said. “But none of my colleagues on my side are running for governor. They’re running for re-election to the House.”
True enough. But the overall bleak picture for the state GOP has given Democrats an opening to make a play for two House seats that have not been targeted in years.
In another election year, Republicans would likely be on offense in the battleground state credited with pushing President Bush across the finish line in 2004. Instead, they are almost entirely on defense.
GOP Reps. Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce, who represent suburban/exurban districts in Cincinnati and Columbus, respectively, have to be a little nervous about what a statewide Democratic avalanche might do to their re-election prospects.
Democrats are also targeting Rep. Bob Ney (R) — whose connection to the Abramoff scandal has only helped Democrats in Ohio connect the dots between corruption at the state and national levels.
And the state GOP problems will no doubt also make it more difficult for the party to pick up the Democratic-held open 6th district — a swing seat that in any other election year they might have a better than even chance of winning.
KENTUCKY and INDIANA: Time for a Change?
These two states share more than just a border — they both have unpopular first-term Republican governors.
Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) was indicted two weeks ago on three misdemeanor charges of conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination after an investigation into the state government’s hiring practices.
Fletcher, a former House Member, is not up for re-election until next year. But this November will provide voters with their first chance to signal their discontent.
Currently, Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is the most vulnerable Bluegrass State Republican. But Democrats are hoping that a poor atmosphere for the GOP in the state will help to generate competitive races for two other Republican incumbents.
Meanwhile, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has seen his popularity plummet in his first term in office. An Indianapolis Star poll in early March showed his approval rating had dropped to 37 percent, as voters expressed that Daniels had tried to make too many changes too quickly.
There is already some concern that Daniels’ unpopularity may impact state legislative elections this fall, when half of the state Senate and all of the state House seats are up.
Reps. John Hostettler (R) and Mike Sodrel (R) are among the most vulnerable incumbents in the country this year, and Rep. Chris Chocola (R) also could be in serious trouble if a Democratic wave washes over the state.
Another boost for Democrats is that there are no competitive contests at the top of the ballot in Indiana. National Democrats are almost always a drag on the party’s House candidates, as Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was in 2004, and the lack of big-ticket races could further depress turnout among disaffected Republicans.
It is also worth noting that there are currently four competitive House races centered at the axis of where Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio meet.
Voters in those districts share media markets and therefore are well informed of the GOP troubles in neighboring states — yet another factor that must be unsettling for national Republicans.
NEW YORK: An Empire Coronation?
The Empire State is hosting Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2006, and Democrats are currently on track to win both by landslides.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll showed state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the de facto Democratic gubernatorial nominee, with 66 percent and 67 percent support against the two candidates seeking the GOP nod. The same polling firm found Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) scoring 63 percent and 64 percent over her two potential GOP Republican rivals.
Bottom line: There is little question that the two upballot races will essentially be coronations.
But just as significantly, the state GOP is in disarray, with ideological and institutional factions at war as outgoing Gov. George Pataki (R) takes leave of the state to run for president in 2008.
What remains to be seen is whether the lack of upballot competition will depress GOP turnout so much as to jeopardize the re-election chances of a handful of Republican Members who ordinarily would be safe.
The central New York seat made vacant by Rep. Sherwood Boehlert’s (R) pending retirement is sure to be a battle to the finish, and state and national Democrats believe they have a legitimate shot at defeating Reps. Sue Kelly, Randy Kuhl and John Sweeney.
Reynolds said he isn’t worried about the top of the ticket becoming a problem for him or his GOP colleagues. He said because of the Democratic tilt of the state no Republican ever gets a pass and noted that in 1990, when then-Gov. Mario Cuomo (D) beat his Republican challenger by 33 points, no House seats switched hands in the Empire State.
“It taught us that you have to be putting together a good program for voter ID and turnout,” Reynolds said.
TEXAS: Map Mayhem?
Compared to the previous cycle, there are few — two to be exact — competitive Congressional contests in the Lone Star State this year. But that could change in an instant if the Supreme Court rules that the current Congressional map — redrawn in 2003 to exact GOP gains — is unconstitutional.
There could be any number of remedies then — including a return to the map used for the 2002 elections, which gave Democrats a 17-15 edge in the state delegation. The current Texas lineup is 21 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
LOUISIANA: Katrina’s Waves?
Unlike most of the others on this list, the Bayou State is not a hotbed of Congressional activity right now.
But it will be interesting to watch what happens when voters go to the polls for the all-party primaries in November — just two months after the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
If voters choose to use the ballot box to express some of their outrage at the federal and state government response to the disaster, some unexpected results could follow.
Currently, freshman Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is the only incumbent facing a competitive contest.
Emanuel said he has seen no evidence to this point of potential voter backlash there.
“I haven’t seen it yet based on what I’ve seen in Charlie’s district,” Emanuel said.
More than likely the disaster will have more of an impact on the 2007 statewide elections, when Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) will face re-election.
Pollsters on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that Katrina was a tipping point in the slide of President Bush’s approval ratings and the overall depressed mood of the country.
At the very least, recounting Katrina’s devastation — and the government reaction to it — just before the midterm elections could impact the mood of some voters in other states where there are more competitive races this fall.
Little Things Add Up for Democratic Takeover
May 22, 2006
By Josh Kurtz,
Roll Call Staff
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The national political winds may favor the Democrats this election cycle, but all politics is still local. And that’s good news for Senate Democrats, too.
The Democrats are in good shape not just because poll numbers for President Bush and the Republican Congress are scraping rock bottom. They’re in good shape because one previously steady GOP incumbent is seeking re-election in a state where Republicans are running for their lives. And because another GOP incumbent in a solidly Republican state may find himself and his associates in legal jeopardy. One once-shaky Democratic incumbent seems safe because of the Republicans’ inability to recruit anyone who isn’t politically radioactive into the race. The list goes on and on.
“We continue to feel good,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) said recently. “We feel good about the national situation, and we feel good about our local races as well.”
Schumer’s Republican counterpart, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), acknowledged the difficult national picture for the GOP but said Republican Senate candidates are stronger for it.
“Because for many months we’ve been in this situation with the wind in our faces, they are fully prepared,” she told reporters recently. “There’s no illusion that these are going to be easy races. In other words, they’re prepared for aggressive races.”
Despite what the Senate campaign chiefs say, in reality, it’s a hodgepodge year on the Senate battlefront. And while it’s easy enough to make certain predictions, it is difficult to identify real trends.
That’s a stark contrast from the past few election cycles. In 2004, for example, you could see Republican gains from a mile away. In a presidential year, five Democratic Senate incumbents from the South retired, and sure enough, with Bush racking up huge margins in those states, the GOP picked up all five seats.
The 2002 cycle also was a good one for Republicans, and most of the close Senate races went their way — though the trend wasn’t altogether evident until the weekend before the election. And in 2000, six Senate incumbents lost, five Republicans and one Democrat.
This time, the Democrats’ top pickup opportunities — and the Republicans’ — are a product of specific circumstances as much as the national mood. Not that national trends don’t come into play.
In Senate races, “you actually have personalities emerge,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster and Roll Call contributing writer. “But the national atmospherics set the starting point.”
The Democrats’ recipe for a Senate majority takes the atmospherics and adds these unique elements:
• Their top target, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), is a conservative representing a state that has voted Democratic in the past four presidential elections. The Democratic nominee, state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., is uniquely equipped to cut into Santorum’s support among socially conservative Catholic voters.
• Their second target, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), is in grave danger of losing his primary to a conservative challenger, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R). If Laffey wins, the seat is all but certain to fall into Democratic hands. Even if Chafee wins, he will face a very tough battle against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in a solidly Democratic state.
• Another target, Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), probably would not be in much trouble if it weren’t for the suggestions that his links to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff could put Burns and some of his former staffers in legal peril.
• At the start of the cycle, Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) did not appear to be in any kind of trouble at all. But as the situation in Ohio has deteriorated for Republicans, DeWine has become imperiled. At first, national Democrats were begging someone of stature to get into the race. As the climate in Ohio improved for them, Democrats briefly had two Senate candidates. But they caught a break when Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (D) reluctantly deferred to Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
• In Missouri, once a bellwether but trending Republican, state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) would be a good recruit by any standard in the race against Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.). But McCaskill is aided by her near-miss run for governor in 2004 — and the possibility that voters may be feeling buyer’s remorse now that Gov. Matt Blunt’s (R) poll numbers are plunging. Talent may not be helping his cause by opposing a ballot measure to promote stem-cell research in the state.
• In Arizona, Democrats are lucky to have multimillionaire developer Jim Pederson (D), who is close to popular Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), challenging Sen. Jon Kyl (R) in a year when Napolitano is up for re-election. Short of Napolitano running for Senate herself, no one else would have made the race competitive.
• In Virginia, a rising Democratic tide could sink a boat that Sen. George Allen (R) is trying to launch nationally. Democrats — to their own surprise — find themselves with two potentially solid Senate candidates at a time when their party is ascendant, and at a time when voters are only too aware that Allen probably would rather be in Iowa and New Hampshire than worrying about re-election. Former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) and high-tech entrepreneur Harris Miller (D) both got into the race late and the primary is relatively early, meaning they have little time to inflict much damage on one another.
Then, there are the races that never happened. In Nebraska, the Republicans inexplicably took their toughest potential challenger to Sen. Ben Nelson (D) off the playing field when President Bush nominated then-Gov. Mike Johanns (R) to be secretary of Agriculture. And the GOP’s inability to find an alternative to Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) in the Sunshine State Senate race is also a mystery.
But as grim as the picture may look for Republicans, a quartet of Democratic-held seats are in play due to unique local circumstances, rather than the national state of affairs — a stopgap, perhaps, against potentially disastrous Election Day losses for the GOP. Consider:
• In New Jersey, people are weary of myriad scandals at the state and local level. And Republicans have a guy named Tom Kean running for Senate. Voters may or may not choose to ignore the “Jr.” at the end of his name.
• In the Maryland open-seat race, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is a good recruit by any measure. But in a very difficult year for Republicans in a very Democratic state, he still could win — in part because of black voters’ lingering resentment over the state Democratic establishment’s inability to promote minority candidates for statewide office.
• In Washington state, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) may suffer at the polls because many voters believe that Dino Rossi, the 2004 Republican candidate for governor, was robbed — by Democratic elections officials and judges.
• In Michigan, Republicans believe they can tie Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) to the increasingly unpopular Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), whose GOP challenger, Amway heir Dick DeVos, may drop $60 million into the contest.
“The whole situation in Michigan is very volatile,” said Ellen Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List, the Democratic-affiliated group that is working hard to re-elect both Stabenow and Granholm.
So by all means, keep your eye on the national trends. But as you attempt to figure out what the balance of power in the Senate will look like come January 2007, don’t forget the state-by-state nuances as well.
And here’s one other helpful hint: If you’re looking for one true Senate bellwether this year, where each party has a solid candidate and relatively few other political distractions — try Minnesota.
Southwest
May 22, 2006
By David M. Drucker, Nicole Duran, Josh Kurtz and Lauren W. Whittington,
Roll Call Staff
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Arizona| New Mexico | Oklahoma | Texas
Filing deadline: June 14
Primary: Sept. 12
Senate
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R)
2nd term: (79 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
The knock on Kyl is that he’s never faced a legitimate challenger. True or not, that’s definitely not the case this year with multimillionaire shopping center developer and Arizona Democratic Party insider Jim Pederson.
After some initial false starts, Pederson is now on the attack and on television, going after Kyl on key issues, including illegal immigration. Pederson also has lived up to the promise of his purse, dumping at least $2 million of his own money into the race thus far.
The result: Kyl’s lead in the polls has dropped from 22 points to a level that puts Pederson in striking distance. But for now, that’s all it is: striking distance.
Kyl still led Pederson by 11 points in the most recent poll and had banked $7.3 million by the end of the first quarter, to his opponent’s $2.7 million. And Pederson must first dispatch with a primary challenge from John Verkamp, a former Republican state Senator who switched parties in part because of his opposition to the Iraq war.
Kyl has positioned himself at the forefront of issues that matter to Arizonans generally and Republicans in particular — illegal immigration and the confirmation of President Bush’s judicial nominees among them.
Additionally, he stands to benefit from the strong support of Sen. John McCain (R) and Arizona’s Republican bent.
House
1st district
Incumbent: Rick Renzi (R)
2nd term (59 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
Renzi’s path to re-election has smoothed of late. The Democrats’ preferred challenger, American Indian Jack Jackson Jr., dropped out of the race in part because he was unable to raise money.
Now, four second-tier Democrats are battling each other for the right to take on Renzi, none of them nearly as well funded as the incumbent. Democratic activist and radio host Mike Caccioppoli (D), the noisiest of the group, finished the first quarter with $2,715 in cash on hand.
Renzi banked $673,710.
Democrats Susan Friedman, a marketing executive, retired dentist Vic McKerlie, and attorney Ellen Simon, who just jumped into the race, fared about the same as Caccioppoli on the money front. Simon now seems to be the favorite of state party leaders.
5th district
Incumbent: J.D. Hayworth (R)
6th term (59 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
With the entry of state Sen. Harry Mitchell (D) into the race, Hayworth’s coast to re-election got a little bumpy.
Mitchell combines party-insider status within the Arizona Democratic Party — he just resigned as its chairman — with the qualities of being well-liked and well-known earned from years of public service in portions of the Phoenix-area 5th district. He is a former mayor of Tempe — there is even a statue of him outside of City Hall.
Democrats are extremely high on Mitchell, who is being termed out of the state Senate. Other candidates who had jumped into the race or considered running cleared the field after Mitchell declared for the seat in mid-March.
But this race is still Hayworth’s to lose — and he has plenty of margin for error. The incumbent’s old 6th district had more Democratic pockets than does his current, Republican-leaning 5th district — and his races were not easy. Yet he still managed to get the W.
Republicans note that Mitchell offers a number of flaws that are easily exploitable — specifically, a legislative voting record that is too far to the left for Republicans and independents to stomach.
As of March 31, Hayworth led Mitchell in cash on hand, banking $687,407 compared to $20,435 for Mitchell. That disparity is sure to tighten some as the campaign progresses.
8th district
Open seat: Jim Kolbe (R) is retiring
Outlook: Tossup
Kolbe’s decision to call it quits has turned this seat into a prime target for Democrats this cycle and a prime opportunity.
The seat leans Republican, but moderately so, and depending on which Republican emerges from the GOP’s crowded primary, Democrats could have the edge heading into November. Of course whether they can capitalize depends on the outcome of their own multicandidate primary.
Among the dozen Republicans running, state Rep. Steve Huffman, who recently was endorsed by Kolbe — as well as former Arizona Republican Party Chairman Mike Hellon and 2004 GOP primary runner-up Randy Graf, a former state legislator — are considered the top three contenders.
Among the half-dozen or so Democrats running, former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords and longtime Tucson television news anchor Patty Weiss are considered the candidates to beat.
Giffords is the favorite of national Democrats, who believe her experience, business background and ability to raise money will have wide appeal in the politically moderate district. National Republicans are simply hoping Graf doesn’t win, as they worry his reputation as a staunch conservative won’t sell in the general election.
Regardless of who emerges from the Sept. 12 primaries, the general election could offer a window into how illegal immigration will play on Nov. 7.
Filing deadline: Passed
Primary: June 6
Senate
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D)
4th term (62 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
To Republicans’ regret, the taciturn Bingaman is almost getting a free pass this cycle.
Three candidates are competing in the GOP primary: state Sen. Joseph Carraro, physician Allen McCulloch and former Santa Fe City Councilman David Pfeffer.
Carraro is one of the state’s most persistent and articulate critics of Gov. Bill Richardson (D), but he entered the Senate race late and has not made much of a case — for himself or against Bingaman. Pfeffer, a former Democrat, has tried to make illegal immigration his signature issue, spending nine days recently walking the New Mexico-Mexico border to highlight the problem.
Almost by default, McCulloch now appears to be the Republican frontrunner. He had far and away the most money in the bank of GOP contenders at the end of March — $129,000 — and the support of most state Republican leaders.
Bingaman, with more than $1.8 million in the bank, will not have to sweat much this fall.
House
1st district
Incumbent: Heather Wilson (R)
4th full term (54 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
One of the marquee House races of the cycle, the battle between Wilson and state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) is already at full throttle and promises to intensify as the weeks progress. It is easy to anticipate the headlines touting this as a “catfight” of epic proportions.
Wilson and Madrid both are sharp, driven and savvy political players, and their race in many ways seems to exemplify all that is going on at the national level. Expect both Congressional campaign committees and several interest groups to spend liberally on the contest. EMILY’s List has already made